The United States considers Asia a vital part of its power. Its security structure is rooted in bilateral US alliances with regional states, and the prevailing model of international security is based on US-backed international organizations. However, the region’s political regimes will be affected by the changing trends in international politics.
Authoritarian regimes in East Asia are likely to resist US efforts to improve human rights and democratic standards in their countries. Their policies will be driven by an uncertain regional security environment. Moreover, East Asian governments will be influenced by a variety of interest groups. Consequently, the region will continue to have a wide range of reactions to US interests.
China and Japan will likely work against US efforts to strengthen their security ties. They will also be wary of US plans to build missile defense systems in the region. Beijing is also concerned about the growing presence of US military bases in the region, especially in South Korea.
These factors will complicate the US leadership in the region. Moreover, regional leaders may tacitly welcome the United States’ failures to make its policy more consultative. But it is unlikely that they will support the United States’ attempts to gain greater leadership in broader international efforts.
In the future, East Asian policies toward the United States will be driven by the nascent regional economic revival. This will amplify long-standing differences over trade policy.
Agricultural exporters in Southeast Asia will resist the United States’ agricultural trade liberalization policies. Likewise, Japanese manufacturers are worried about the continued slow growth of their economy. And the US is concerned about the rising economic power of China.